Home -> NATO Shows Resolve, of a Sort
 

24 March 1999 19:30 GMT

Minutes ago, President Clinton formerly announced the commencement of NATO air raids against Serbian forces. He laid out three goals for the action

  1. To demonstrate that NATO is serious about stopping Serbian aggression in Kosovo.

  2. To bring such aggression to a halt.

  3. To cripple Milosevic's ability to continue such hostilities in the future.

I think there is little chance of achieving these goals through air strikes alone. Most likely, NATO will immediately target military installations in order to establish our superiority. As much as this will protect NATO pilots, it does little to protect Kosovans: you don't burn villages and execute civilians with surface to air missiles. Atrocities on the ground could very well continue. Serbian military forces have been scattered around the country in anticipation of just such air strikes, and will be difficult to strike without killing the civilians NATO wishes to protect.

So much for goals 2 and 3.

Taken in that light, the inability, or more correctly, unwillingness, of NATO to commit ground forces should demonstrate to Milosevic that NATO is not serious about stopping his aggression. NATO is willing to throw a stone at his eye from afar, but not to get in the dirt in Kosovo and break his fingers.

Even goal 1 may not be acheived.

Milosevic's evil is rivaled only by his cunning. Knowing that he had nothing to gain from the peace process, he has forced NATO's hand. Serbia has had no room to maneuver for a long time; now the United States and NATO are in the same position.

Any number of things could derail the resolve of the West: partisan politics in the United States, lack of popular support among Americans and Europeans for conflict, pressure from a none too stable Russia. Milosevic can take his chances and wait it out, because no number of air strikes will move Serbian troops out of Kosovo.

That's how I see it, anyway. I sincerely hope that I am wrong.

[Home]

Last Updated:24 April 1999
Rant Back!