Guns: reality vs expectation
In the last week I've heard a pair of stories that manage to display both the expectation and reality of gun control laws in this new Democratic era. NPR ran a story that covered a gun-store owner, and talked about what this new era has done for his sales. In short, his business is booming.
It seems the expectation is that now that the Democrats are in control, it's only a matter of time before things like the assault weapons ban is reinstated, or even more draconian anti-gun legislation gets passed. This has caused an ammunition shortage nation-wide, as gun owners stock up on the bullets their guns need before the feds can ban them. Weapons sales are up for similar reasons, buy now while you still can. The shop owner described the amounts of ammunition some people are buying as, "lifetime supplies."
And yet... this last week Newsweek ran an article about how deeply unlikely major gun-control legislation will be passed. The Democratic coalition now includes a certain flavor of pro-gun moderate that wasn't in the coalition back in 1994 when the assault weapons ban was passed, and there are enough of them that such a law has no hope of passing the Senate. This is how the Democrats have a Senator in Montana. The 2008 election brought in a type of Democrat that didn't really exist in the 1992 election, the pro-gun, anti-abortion Democrat. These new Congressional members are not going to vote for anything that takes guns away from hunters.
The political reality has anti-gun lobbyists grumbling, while at the same time the perception has the NRA signing up new members and spoiling for a fight. Even though it is the Democrats in power now, the political center of this country as shifted a bit right from where it was the last time the Democrats had unified power. Major gun-control legislation is deeply unlikely, as is any sweeping liberalization of abortion laws. Due to the routine use of the filibuster, outright control of the Senate is 60 seats not 51, so in effect neither party controls that chamber right now.
At some point, perhaps after the 2012 election, or even the 2010 election, the perception will mesh with reality. It'll probably take a prominent gun control bill to get out of committee just to die in the Senate, but the two will mesh at some point. Until then, gun-store owners will enjoy increased sales as people start hoarding against a perceived shortage in the future.
It seems the expectation is that now that the Democrats are in control, it's only a matter of time before things like the assault weapons ban is reinstated, or even more draconian anti-gun legislation gets passed. This has caused an ammunition shortage nation-wide, as gun owners stock up on the bullets their guns need before the feds can ban them. Weapons sales are up for similar reasons, buy now while you still can. The shop owner described the amounts of ammunition some people are buying as, "lifetime supplies."
And yet... this last week Newsweek ran an article about how deeply unlikely major gun-control legislation will be passed. The Democratic coalition now includes a certain flavor of pro-gun moderate that wasn't in the coalition back in 1994 when the assault weapons ban was passed, and there are enough of them that such a law has no hope of passing the Senate. This is how the Democrats have a Senator in Montana. The 2008 election brought in a type of Democrat that didn't really exist in the 1992 election, the pro-gun, anti-abortion Democrat. These new Congressional members are not going to vote for anything that takes guns away from hunters.
The political reality has anti-gun lobbyists grumbling, while at the same time the perception has the NRA signing up new members and spoiling for a fight. Even though it is the Democrats in power now, the political center of this country as shifted a bit right from where it was the last time the Democrats had unified power. Major gun-control legislation is deeply unlikely, as is any sweeping liberalization of abortion laws. Due to the routine use of the filibuster, outright control of the Senate is 60 seats not 51, so in effect neither party controls that chamber right now.
At some point, perhaps after the 2012 election, or even the 2010 election, the perception will mesh with reality. It'll probably take a prominent gun control bill to get out of committee just to die in the Senate, but the two will mesh at some point. Until then, gun-store owners will enjoy increased sales as people start hoarding against a perceived shortage in the future.
posted by Corwin at 4:24 PM
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