PRT and self-driving cars
This morning I noticed that CNN had an article about a Personal Rapid Transit deployment in upstate New York. If you've been reading me a while, you know my opinions about PRT. In this case, I do side with the critics in that it is largely an infeasible gimmick. For the same reason that monorail systems like Seattle's monorail never really took off, PRT systems will also fail to thrive. This is because these sorts of systems require a separate right-of-way (RoW) to work, and both prefer elevated trackage.
At the same time, ArsTechnica is running a series of articles on the future of the self-driving car. Part One was posted last week, and is a good run-down of the state-of-the-art of automated driving. Part Two posted today and discusses some of the neat things you can do with a widely deployed 'auto-driver' system. Next week they'll cover some of the social issues that may arise. These sorts of systems take advantage of the pre-existing right-of-way we drive on every day.
The only way PRT will take off is through massive governmental buy-in. We can do it with today's technology, the only sticking point is paying for it and the time required to build it out. Any time you create a brand new RoW it costs massive amounts of money and time. The Interstate Highway System took decades to get into place and cost tens of billions. Even the most robust of Commuter-Rail networks took decades to really get to a good saturation point, at least in the areas where commuter-rail didn't already exist such as the Northeast Corridor, and even they started with pre-existing rail RoW already built.
The cost of a fully deployed PRT system can only be paid for by government. No one else has the finances available for a project of that size. An as with the interstate system, it'll take a long time to get the networks up and running. With massive buy in right now, PRT systems could compete with the kind of self-driving technology we're likely to have at grade in 20 years. The US Government certainly isn't going to fund anything this large, though the more socially minded Scandinavian countries may.
Auto-driver systems are far more likely to be present in US cities in 20 years. In my opinion, wide deployment, where most people don't bother driving themselves, may come in the 30-50 range. Once the personal autonomy issues are worked through, such systems have a wide social benefit as the selfish human driver with the limited point of view (only within sight) introduces certain inefficiencies in the highway system. These are the same benefits that proponents of PRT systems bring forward, and they're right. However, the chances of getting such a separate-RoW system in place are minimal here in the US.
At the same time, ArsTechnica is running a series of articles on the future of the self-driving car. Part One was posted last week, and is a good run-down of the state-of-the-art of automated driving. Part Two posted today and discusses some of the neat things you can do with a widely deployed 'auto-driver' system. Next week they'll cover some of the social issues that may arise. These sorts of systems take advantage of the pre-existing right-of-way we drive on every day.
The only way PRT will take off is through massive governmental buy-in. We can do it with today's technology, the only sticking point is paying for it and the time required to build it out. Any time you create a brand new RoW it costs massive amounts of money and time. The Interstate Highway System took decades to get into place and cost tens of billions. Even the most robust of Commuter-Rail networks took decades to really get to a good saturation point, at least in the areas where commuter-rail didn't already exist such as the Northeast Corridor, and even they started with pre-existing rail RoW already built.
The cost of a fully deployed PRT system can only be paid for by government. No one else has the finances available for a project of that size. An as with the interstate system, it'll take a long time to get the networks up and running. With massive buy in right now, PRT systems could compete with the kind of self-driving technology we're likely to have at grade in 20 years. The US Government certainly isn't going to fund anything this large, though the more socially minded Scandinavian countries may.
Auto-driver systems are far more likely to be present in US cities in 20 years. In my opinion, wide deployment, where most people don't bother driving themselves, may come in the 30-50 range. Once the personal autonomy issues are worked through, such systems have a wide social benefit as the selfish human driver with the limited point of view (only within sight) introduces certain inefficiencies in the highway system. These are the same benefits that proponents of PRT systems bring forward, and they're right. However, the chances of getting such a separate-RoW system in place are minimal here in the US.
posted by Corwin at 11:20 AM
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