Strains in Iraq
The past several months have further shown that the US Military is having a hard time keeping up in Iraq. We're having a hard time maintaining the man-power requirements for the job, and we're having a hard time dealing with the injuries coming out of Iraq. The injuries will be a burden on the VA system for decades to come, but that's what it is there for afterall.
But most vets I've spoken to do not speak highly of the VA. And stories leaking out into the public show that this is a system not used to the increased workloads the Iraq wars have put on it. Gulf War Syndrome from the first one. And this time around is a lot more stressful as many, many more people are being killed. The VA system has needed revamping for a while now, and it is due. But new money is hard to come by, unfortunately.
National Guard members have been on and off duty for three years now, and that is taking its toll. New sign-ups to the National Guard haven't been mentioned in the media at all. And a key point, whether or not the recruitment quotas are set at a level to maintain manpower in Iraq, has not been mentioned.
The military continues to offer very significant 're up' bonuses to people who sign on for another tour. The military has been under 'stop loss' orders for several years now. Recently active-duty people have started refusing to be shipped to Iraq. The Army continues to ship soldiers out of Iraq as conscientious objectors, an unusual status for active-duty people to have. All of this points to a military that is operating at peak load, and this can't go on for much longer.
This, more than any political considerations, will be what pulls us out of Iraq. The war is unpopular enough at home that a law to reinstate the draft will be lucky to get even 75 votes of the needed 215 votes to get past the House. So there will be no relief there. In my opinion, we'll start seeing a slow draw down of manpower in Iraq sometime in the next 12 months, with significant draw-down in the 12-48 month period.
The good part of this is that at some point we'll hit a manpower level that is sustainable. But we'll need a significant Iraqi military presence to supplement what we're doing, and that presence has to be trained enough and corruption resistant enough to do the job; no guarantees for that. But that time will likely be around the point the next US President is sworn in, and the domestic political landscape may have changed significantly.
Like the former Yugoslavia, we'll have some form of military presence there for many years to come. But it won't be the 100,000+ we have now for much longer.
But most vets I've spoken to do not speak highly of the VA. And stories leaking out into the public show that this is a system not used to the increased workloads the Iraq wars have put on it. Gulf War Syndrome from the first one. And this time around is a lot more stressful as many, many more people are being killed. The VA system has needed revamping for a while now, and it is due. But new money is hard to come by, unfortunately.
National Guard members have been on and off duty for three years now, and that is taking its toll. New sign-ups to the National Guard haven't been mentioned in the media at all. And a key point, whether or not the recruitment quotas are set at a level to maintain manpower in Iraq, has not been mentioned.
The military continues to offer very significant 're up' bonuses to people who sign on for another tour. The military has been under 'stop loss' orders for several years now. Recently active-duty people have started refusing to be shipped to Iraq. The Army continues to ship soldiers out of Iraq as conscientious objectors, an unusual status for active-duty people to have. All of this points to a military that is operating at peak load, and this can't go on for much longer.
This, more than any political considerations, will be what pulls us out of Iraq. The war is unpopular enough at home that a law to reinstate the draft will be lucky to get even 75 votes of the needed 215 votes to get past the House. So there will be no relief there. In my opinion, we'll start seeing a slow draw down of manpower in Iraq sometime in the next 12 months, with significant draw-down in the 12-48 month period.
The good part of this is that at some point we'll hit a manpower level that is sustainable. But we'll need a significant Iraqi military presence to supplement what we're doing, and that presence has to be trained enough and corruption resistant enough to do the job; no guarantees for that. But that time will likely be around the point the next US President is sworn in, and the domestic political landscape may have changed significantly.
Like the former Yugoslavia, we'll have some form of military presence there for many years to come. But it won't be the 100,000+ we have now for much longer.
posted by Corwin at 7:30 AM
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