Europe, now what?
Now that the constitution is not to be approved, there is a lot of debate. What now? What did the French and Dutch mean by their No votes? Is the Euro dead? Is the EU dead? What does this mean for Turkey?
Two themes have surfaced in all the debate, Nationalism and Immigration. Nationalism, or more specifically the loss of sovereignty, was frequently cited by voters. Immigration policy was another area that was frequently mentioned. The second item here is one that US has been facing for a large percentage of our history. The first one is one that we don't have any real experience with (Texas not withstanding).
The beef being raised about immigration is that the most recent wave of migration is coming from Muslim countries, and those immigrants are not assimilating as fast as people would like. They're forming their own communities instead, and that's making people nervous. Especially since Everyone Knows that Jihadis live in Muslim enclaves, and Muslim charitable groups are just fronts to launder money for terrorist organizations.
Ahem. We have enough trouble with that misconception at home. For Europeans who aren't as used to immigration as we are, this weighs heavy on their minds. We have a 3rd world country on our southern border, and most of Europe doesn't have anything like that. The closest they have are the ex-Soviet states in eastern Europe, but those migrants typically assimilate pretty quickly. Turkey is bringing big fears since it could be a part of the EU, and that'll mean migrants who won't assimilate fast.
The forces of nationalism in Europe are strong enough that the chances of a EU that looks like the US are very slim in my lifetime. It may come close, but it'll take decades of negotiation to get there. Much like the decades of negotiation that have already happened to bring the euro to the market. I expect the issue of "states rights" to be at the fore-front of negotiations for the next several cycles.
I do not expect the Euro to go away. It's hit a rough patch thanks to the constitution failure, but it won't go away. One or two countries may defect from it, but I do not expect those moves to be without great debate. England may never adopt it.
The next step will be to wait until a clearer picture of what The People want emerges, and then more rounds of negotiations. There are enough contradictory positions in the EU as it is that any new constitution can't introduce anything radical or it'll fall the same way this one did. If any governments change in upcoming elections, that'll change how the negotiations happen.
It'll be fun.
Two themes have surfaced in all the debate, Nationalism and Immigration. Nationalism, or more specifically the loss of sovereignty, was frequently cited by voters. Immigration policy was another area that was frequently mentioned. The second item here is one that US has been facing for a large percentage of our history. The first one is one that we don't have any real experience with (Texas not withstanding).
The beef being raised about immigration is that the most recent wave of migration is coming from Muslim countries, and those immigrants are not assimilating as fast as people would like. They're forming their own communities instead, and that's making people nervous. Especially since Everyone Knows that Jihadis live in Muslim enclaves, and Muslim charitable groups are just fronts to launder money for terrorist organizations.
Ahem. We have enough trouble with that misconception at home. For Europeans who aren't as used to immigration as we are, this weighs heavy on their minds. We have a 3rd world country on our southern border, and most of Europe doesn't have anything like that. The closest they have are the ex-Soviet states in eastern Europe, but those migrants typically assimilate pretty quickly. Turkey is bringing big fears since it could be a part of the EU, and that'll mean migrants who won't assimilate fast.
The forces of nationalism in Europe are strong enough that the chances of a EU that looks like the US are very slim in my lifetime. It may come close, but it'll take decades of negotiation to get there. Much like the decades of negotiation that have already happened to bring the euro to the market. I expect the issue of "states rights" to be at the fore-front of negotiations for the next several cycles.
I do not expect the Euro to go away. It's hit a rough patch thanks to the constitution failure, but it won't go away. One or two countries may defect from it, but I do not expect those moves to be without great debate. England may never adopt it.
The next step will be to wait until a clearer picture of what The People want emerges, and then more rounds of negotiations. There are enough contradictory positions in the EU as it is that any new constitution can't introduce anything radical or it'll fall the same way this one did. If any governments change in upcoming elections, that'll change how the negotiations happen.
It'll be fun.
posted by Corwin at 12:09 PM
