Draft predictions

Politically, the draft is less popular than increased taxes. Because of this, you can expect that Congress will go to great lengths to avoid having to reinstate it. What can Congress do?

• Create recruitment incentives Throwing money at new soldiers is much easier to pass than legislation forcing kids into the service.
  
• Modify the GI bill to increase the benefit. Instead of half of a year at an Ivy-league or a year-and-then-a-bit at a State University, change it to two years at a State Univ.
• Authorize a significant sign-up bonus
• Reduce the need for troops
• Withdraw from Iraq earlier than strictly dictated by military recommendation
• Strong arm other nations into picking up the slack
• Train up more Iraqi forces

You can also expect the spectre of a draft to be used as a club to get some of the above passed. Throwing money at new soldiers will run up against deficit hawks who are already squawking about our record deficit, and a draft argument will go a long ways to quieting dissent from that quarter. Should an unfortunate event force us to require more troops, such as another attack on the US mainland, a draft may be much more likely. But without dire and immediate circumstance, a draft won't get passed until a year or two after when we actually needed one.