Monday, June 14, 2004

Kerry/McCain '04

A lot has been said about how this would be a killer ticket, and I think it would be too. It just isn't going to happen. No matter how nice it sounds.

The art of selecting a running mate is entirely in picking someone who will bring the most voters to you, and make the fewest enemies while doing it. It was politics that made Gore choose a democratic religious conservative for his running mate in 2000. It was politics that made Quale a good choice for H. W. Bush in 1988. It was politics that made Ferarra a good choice for Mondale in 1984.

On the 'bring lots of voters' front, McCain would be a good choice. As the poster child for moderate Republicans, it would permit the moderate wing of the Republican party an option to vote against the President but within party (sort of). This is why polls have shown that Kerry/McCain win by a significant margin over Bush/Cheney.

However, such a lineup violates the second principal. By selecting a running-mate outside of the party, Kerry would burn political capital that he'd need to get legislation passed. Also, McCain's "defection", for it would be viewed as such even if he doesn't renounce his Republican party membership, would greatly harm his aspirations to a further political career. So while such a move would sell to the voters really well, it wouldn't do either person good in the long run.

But it would be nice to see. Not that it'll happen.

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