Monday, May 17, 2004

Gay Marriage pt 2

As I read today's news coverage of the MA weddings, I have to come to one conclusion. The progress of gay marriage will follow that of school integration. In the words of the NPR person this morning:

"I remember the day when the decision [Brown vs. BoE] as announced in class. The principal came before our class and said that we'd have colored kids in the class next year. It didn't happen. It didn't happen when I was in middle school. It didn't happen when I was in high school. It didn't happen in College. It didn't happen when I got my law degree. It finally happened in that school when I was teaching other law students about Brown vs. Board of Education and its significance."

Since it is only a state court that has kicked a door down, we still have the Feds to muck things up. Bush took today to reaffirm his support for a constitutional amendment to 'defend' marriage. Should that illconcieved amendment pass it will create a great barrier. Fortunately, even Republican Senators are reluctant to pass such a bill as they believe in a 'hands off' approach to the constitution. IF Bush wins re-election we can expect near constant pressure to get this thing passed. If Kerry pulls it off, the idea will fall by the way side but there are no guarantees that Congress will do anything to HELP either.

Once this election cycle is over, we'll have a good feel for how America feels about this whole idea. Several municipalities and county boards have gotten themselves into very deep water over their actions in handing out marriage licenses, and we will get to find out how they'll be impacted come November. My guess is that each of the boards (save San Francisco) will get more conservative suddenly.

All in all, it will be a long time coming. It already has, actually. The first case of a court mandating marriage licenses be handed out to same-sex couples was Hawaii, which really was the opening salvo. In that case the State managed to pass a constitutional amendment to prevent it from actually happening, much to the disappointment of marriage-reform activists everywhere. MA is special in that their amendment process is convoluted and long, so the courts were able to create a window in which licenses HAD to be passed out. As residents move out of MA and into other states we'll get challenges to other state laws and opportunities for other state courts to weigh in.

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