Did that say.... impeach?
I'm now seeing media reports either of predictions of impeachment proceedings (so far exclusively from far-left sources), or calls for said from pundits. Given our relatively recent taste of that particular procedure, it does come to mind relatively easy. And truthfully, from an objective point of view the potential articles of impeachment for President George W. Bush are far more damning than the articles drawn up for Pres. William J. Clinton. But impeachment is a political tool, so objectivity only plays a minor role.
Of the three attempts at impeachment this country has witnessed, only one was for criminal acts that both sides of congress agreed upon were criminal. The other two, which both ironically progressed further than the criminal one, were politically motivated. The President can be impeached for sneezing funny (endangering public health!) so long as a super majority in the Senate can be mustered to agree to the procedure and the Vice President isn't just as bad as the guy who is getting the boot.
We are fortunate that such super majorities in congress, party-wise, are rare. If one party is so far in ascendancy that it can command that many senate seats, chances are real good the President will also be of that party. I believe it is not a coincidence that override of a veto requires the same majority in Congress.
In this case, our current President has two big things in his favor for dodging such a proceeding:
1: His party holds Congress, even if just barely
2: His job is up for public review this November
The only way that such proceedings will happen is if things go horribly wrong. And do so that even "Bush can do no wrong" supporters have to admit that things aren't right. We are nowhere near there yet. It would have to be something Nixon-like to get to that point. And then we'd be stuck with Cheney, who is even worse when it comes to the issue that'd get Bush tossed.
We're kinda stuck.
This leaves us with the only option of the election process. Which is vastly more expensive, but not such a challenge to our Constitution. High-level defections from the GOP's stance of supporting Bush for President would do wonders to get the guy out; much better than drawing up Articles of Impeachment would, since that would need GOP support too. If Kerry could somehow pick up a moderate Republican for VP, it could transform the election into a true referendum on how to handle Iraq.
However, things would have to get much worse for that to work. So far, only the one prison is implicated and there are still only rumors of another situation in Afghanistan. Also there is a perception that the Department of Justice is trying to suppress video of interrogations of post 9/11 detainees that might also show similar torture.
The worst that can happen with the Abu Ghraib prison is the sacking of the civilians over in DoD. That would have to include a clear paper-trail showing that the Civilian Authorities(tm) deliberately bypassed existing limits on the use of torture. And even then some righteous indignation, on paper dating from back when the decisions were made of course, from the military authorities would greatly help.
And even if the Afghanistan allegations turn out to be true, it would only be DoD getting the axe. If that is the case, there will be full scale witch hunts going on in the Pentagon to flush out the torturous evil and new Zero Tolerance policies. Not the impeachable, in this environment anyway, material needed to get Bush out of office.
If the post 9/11 stuff does pan out, that does implicate another branch of the government. That was either Dept. of Justice or Homeland Security, I can't remember. In either case, not the DoD. Depending on the severity of what surfaces, it could either spark more witch-hunts or another general sacking of appointees.
At any rate, both Afghanistan and the post-9/11 detainees would have to be just as gruesome as Abu Ghraib for any sort of impeachment proceeding to gain even a hint of traction. As we get closer to the party Conventions, it becomes more and more of a political football. Already you can count on speeches at the Democratic Convention blasting Bush for allowing torturers to operate in the US Military; how loud they are, and if they are echoed by moderate GOP, will depend on the severity of the problem at that time.
No, impeachment will not come. Not unless something truly shocking, something that makes Abu Ghraib look small, comes to the surface soon. What we'll probably get, at worst, is the sacking of civilians at DoD and possibly Ashcroft. As for international reaction, that's another story.
Of the three attempts at impeachment this country has witnessed, only one was for criminal acts that both sides of congress agreed upon were criminal. The other two, which both ironically progressed further than the criminal one, were politically motivated. The President can be impeached for sneezing funny (endangering public health!) so long as a super majority in the Senate can be mustered to agree to the procedure and the Vice President isn't just as bad as the guy who is getting the boot.
We are fortunate that such super majorities in congress, party-wise, are rare. If one party is so far in ascendancy that it can command that many senate seats, chances are real good the President will also be of that party. I believe it is not a coincidence that override of a veto requires the same majority in Congress.
In this case, our current President has two big things in his favor for dodging such a proceeding:
1: His party holds Congress, even if just barely
2: His job is up for public review this November
The only way that such proceedings will happen is if things go horribly wrong. And do so that even "Bush can do no wrong" supporters have to admit that things aren't right. We are nowhere near there yet. It would have to be something Nixon-like to get to that point. And then we'd be stuck with Cheney, who is even worse when it comes to the issue that'd get Bush tossed.
We're kinda stuck.
This leaves us with the only option of the election process. Which is vastly more expensive, but not such a challenge to our Constitution. High-level defections from the GOP's stance of supporting Bush for President would do wonders to get the guy out; much better than drawing up Articles of Impeachment would, since that would need GOP support too. If Kerry could somehow pick up a moderate Republican for VP, it could transform the election into a true referendum on how to handle Iraq.
However, things would have to get much worse for that to work. So far, only the one prison is implicated and there are still only rumors of another situation in Afghanistan. Also there is a perception that the Department of Justice is trying to suppress video of interrogations of post 9/11 detainees that might also show similar torture.
The worst that can happen with the Abu Ghraib prison is the sacking of the civilians over in DoD. That would have to include a clear paper-trail showing that the Civilian Authorities(tm) deliberately bypassed existing limits on the use of torture. And even then some righteous indignation, on paper dating from back when the decisions were made of course, from the military authorities would greatly help.
And even if the Afghanistan allegations turn out to be true, it would only be DoD getting the axe. If that is the case, there will be full scale witch hunts going on in the Pentagon to flush out the torturous evil and new Zero Tolerance policies. Not the impeachable, in this environment anyway, material needed to get Bush out of office.
If the post 9/11 stuff does pan out, that does implicate another branch of the government. That was either Dept. of Justice or Homeland Security, I can't remember. In either case, not the DoD. Depending on the severity of what surfaces, it could either spark more witch-hunts or another general sacking of appointees.
At any rate, both Afghanistan and the post-9/11 detainees would have to be just as gruesome as Abu Ghraib for any sort of impeachment proceeding to gain even a hint of traction. As we get closer to the party Conventions, it becomes more and more of a political football. Already you can count on speeches at the Democratic Convention blasting Bush for allowing torturers to operate in the US Military; how loud they are, and if they are echoed by moderate GOP, will depend on the severity of the problem at that time.
No, impeachment will not come. Not unless something truly shocking, something that makes Abu Ghraib look small, comes to the surface soon. What we'll probably get, at worst, is the sacking of civilians at DoD and possibly Ashcroft. As for international reaction, that's another story.
posted by Corwin at 10:54 AM
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